Assuming the Army does not go bankrupt or is called upon to calm massive unrest due to economic catastrophe, I am putting my money on Steve Crane to win the Army ten miler. I just interviewed him for an article and he seems like he is in peek condition: First American at Cherry Blossom, first American at the Philly half and he is pretty low key about it all. No hype, no stress, just running. Plus he trains without a watch, which gives him some cool points. He will have his hands full as I know some Ethiopians from Georgia are coming as are some Brazilians from their military.
If he does win, he will be the first local non-pro to win in eons. I think Chris Graff one it sometime ago but he was a pro runner and thus, sort of in a different category.
Like most of you, Crane is just a 9-5 working guy who likes to run and is good at it.
In any case, good luck to all.